Scholarship News

– Intensive pressure on Ireland as Europe’s finance ministers gather – EU “considering €80bn-€100bn rescue package” – Greek debt spikes after Austria threatens to withhold bailout funds

6.05pm: So with the Irish bailout crisis still unresolved, it’s a good time to do a markets round-up.

The FTSE 100 closed down 138 points, or 2.38%, at 5681. That’s its biggest daily decline since June . Having enjoyed a rally for the last four months, traders seem to have belately woken up to reality.

As Angus Campbell, head of sales at Capital Spreads, put it:

The FTSE took a whack today as it finally dawned on equity investors that Europe might be in a bit of a pickle. It’s extraordinary that the sell-off has taken such a long time to materialise when the headlines have been riddled with increased concerns over the Ireland and Portugal issue.

In the bond markets, the yield (or interest rate) on Irish government debt has leapt again to 8.542%, up from 8.17% overnight. That’s a clear sign that the markets are more concerned about the possibility that Ireland will restructure its debt, or even default…..

6.04pm: Over in Dublin, RTE journalist Fergal Keane is reporting Cowen’s speech didn’t go down well with backbenchers and that the rumour mill is in overdrive about the announcement due at 7pm from Brussels.

There is speculation that it would include some sort of face-saving deal for the Irish government.

Of course, that press conference could come later than 7pm, given the late start ( see 5.25pm )

5.49pm: More evidence that Brian Cowen’s insistance that “Ireland is fully funded” has not been well received:

Economist at the University of Limerick, Stephen Kinsella just declared that: “The Taoiseach said nothing of substance, which only adds to the noise and speculation surrounding the state’s finances. Overall, a disappointing address, given the gravity of the situation.”

5.35pm: Although Ireland has not applied for a bailout, Irish PM Brian Cowen did explain that more informal talks are still ongoing with the EU. Here’s the key quote:

It is in all of our interests that we find a credible, efficient and above all workable solution that will provide assurance to the markets and thereby restore confidence and stability

Opposition politicians are now savaging Taoiseach Cowen, calling for his resignation.

Arthur Morgan , Sinn Féin member for the Louth constituency, has just been rebuked for accusing Cowen of “lying for more than two years”. He just explained that he meant to say “fibbing”.

Morgan also slammed Cowen for the “bluffing and hiding behind words that have been part of the problem.”

5.25pm: Brian Lenihan, Ireland’s finance minister, has finally arrived at the crucial eurozone talks in Brussels! Running an hour and a quarter late, Lenihan told reporters that Ireland is “fully funded until the middle of next year”, adding that the markets are “not being good to Ireland”.

5.10pm: Over in the Irish Dail, the breaking news is that Ireland has not applied for a bailout.

Brian Cowen has just said that Ireland has made no application for external support. Instead, his government is close to finalising its four-year fiscal plan, and hopes to publish it next week.

Cowen told the Dail that this plan will be “clear and workable”, and that it will maintain the current commitment to protect bank deposits in Ireland. He also said that it is important to find a “credible, workable solution to remove the uncertainty in the markets”, and argued that the current turbulence has been about “issues beyond just Ireland”.

4.54pm: It’s Rumour City right now, with the Wall Street Journal reporting that EU officials are considering a “€80bn to €100bn” bailout for Ireland, and a separate rescue package for the Irish banks.

The WSJ also claims that the Eurozone are keen for the UK to make a contribution to this rescue package….

And FT Alphaville editor Neil Hume has tweeted about speculation that the Irish austerity budget is about to be dragged forwards, to just two days time:

@humenm: New rumour : IRISH BUDGET MOVED FORWARD TO THIS THURSDAY FROM DEC 7TH

4.52pm: Elena Moya has also been speaking to financial traders, and warns that there could be a wide-ranging sell-off in bonds and shares if tonight’s meeting does not reach a solid resolution.

“The markets will penalise any statement that is short on details,” she says.

4.45pm: A quick reminder that the Irish prime minister, Brian Cowen , is due to deliver a statement on Ireland’s economy at 5pm. We’ll be covering it live.

Cowen (pictured, left) has just been speaking in the regular leaders Q&A in the Dail. Lisa O’Carroll has been watching for us – here are some highlights:

Cowen told the parliament that: “We are all trying to make sure that Ireland sees its way through recovery through this difficult period”

In an angry exchange with Enda Kenny, the leader of opposition party Fine Gael, over the decision to give a blanket bank guarantee in Sept 2008, Mr Cowen refused to concede any mistakes had been made.

“I don’t accept for one moment this government hasn’t acted in best interests of this country.

The situation is the guarantee was required . in overall context there is no doubt a guarantee was required to avoid an economic implosion in this country.”

Cowen also still playing down today’s meeting in Brussels and show that Ireland is going to tough it out:

There are concerns out there in relation to the markets. From our point of view it gives rise to concerns. What we’re doing is discussing with our European partners as to what stabilisation is necessary, and what further policy initiatives might be considered but that’s an issue that’s been discussed at ecofin level and finance minister level on an ongoing basis at monthly meetings.

Officials have been involved in those discussion but we haven’t been involved politically in those discussions until today’s meeting takes place.

4.33pm: More from Elena Moya in Brussels:

The EU employment commissioner* seems to be the only one thinking of the many millions of Europeans who could be affected by tonight’s meeting.

Instead of bondholders, he said “We need to discuss the most favourable macroeconomic solution for EU employment,” and urged that any solution should be “the sooner the better.”

(* László Andor, I think)

We’re also hearing that Brian Lenihan is stuck in Brussels traffic….

4.25pm: More from Elena (left), who is capturing the comments from “sombre-looking” finance ministers as they arrive for the meeting in Brussels.

German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told reporters that the EU “isn’t about pushing countries to do things.”

French economy minister Christine Lagarde reminded the media that Ireland hasn’t asked for anything yet, and added that processes are in place to deal with these kind of situations.

The politicians are getting the Hollywood treatment, with a red carpet in place and more than 100 journalists gathered – wondering when Irish finance minister Brian Lenihan will arrive. Apparently, it is very cold in Brussels.

The Dutch finance minister Jan Kees de Jager has also been speaking – and indicated that his government are ready to help:

If Ireland asks for it (a bailout), we are prepared. But its’ not for me to say what Ireland has to do. We are ready to facilitate, todether with the IMF, any demands.

4.13pm: Out in Brussels, Elena Moya reports that the eurozone finance minister’s meeting has been slightly delayed. It was due to start at 4pm GMT, but the star of the show, the Irish finance minister, has not arrived – and was running at least 10 minutes late.

Portugal’s finance minister just showed up – “easing through the crowd with his head down”

3.59pm: With just half an hour’s trading to go in London, the FTSE 100 is heading for its first triple-digit fall in three months. It’s currently down 117 points at 5702.

Over in Wall Street, the Dow Jones is down just over 1% at 11,070. As Nick Fletcher reports, an opening drop on Wall Street helped accelerate the falls in the London market , with concerns about a Chinese interest rate rise added to Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.

3.44pm: The Irish Times also posed an interesting question today — “Why is the government not telling influential foreign media the positive news about Ireland ?”

With the government protesting that it will not be seeking a European Union bailout, the world’s news media continues to give Ireland a savage kicking. It is not pleasant.

On Friday, I met a man who runs a profitable business employing about 50 people. He had just taken a phone call from his London bank telling him that they were pulling out of a capital loan deal. They had simply decided they want nothing to do with any Irish business at this time.

A good deal of the kicking has been deserved. But not all of it. Some, as Brian Lenihan has said, has been irrational. Much of what appears in certain UK media, in particular, seems imitative.

One suspects that there is very little independent validation of what is passed out as news. But perception is arguably more influential than reality in this context. Loss of reputational assets may be as important as loss of economic assets.

Analysts use the term ‘viral’ to describe how modern news media feed off each others’ narrative. An Australian editor of my acquaintance put it more earthily: “They’re like starlings, all flocking off to crap on the same building at the same time.”

3.36pm: Finland appears to be positioning itself as an opponent of an “easy” bailout of Ireland.

Finland is against putting pressure on Ireland to quickly apply for a European Union bailout, saying EU financial aid must be a “last resort,” reports the Irish Times .

“Finland strongly opposes the German position that the mechanism should be used just to make the markets calm down,” said one euro zone source familiar with Finland’s position. “The mechanism wasn’t created for that purpose.”

3.23pm: The revelation that Austria is withholding its share of the Greek rescue package ( see 2.24pm for more details ) has alarmed the financial markets. We just spoke to Gavan Nolan , credit analyst at Markit , who reported that the cost of insuring Greek debt against default for five years jumped by 50 basis points this afternoon to around 950 basis points.

That means it costs €950,000 to insure €10m of Greek debt from now until 2015 – hardly a vote of confidence from the City (and beyond).

The five-year CDS contract had already gained around 45bp this morning before the Austrian news hit the wires. As Nolan explained, the five-year Greek CDS contract has been “pretty volatile” today.

Back in January, before the eurozone debt crisis blew up, the Greek five-year CDS was running at 395 basis points – and that was a record high.

3.18pm: Some breaking news from Dublin — the Irish government is going to release a statement on the economy at around 5pm.

That’s an hour after the eurozone finance ministers’ meeting is expected to start. We are also anticipating a press conference in Brussels around 7pm.

3.08pm: More reaction from the German press. This time from financial daily Boersenzeitung, which warned that “The clock is ticking for Ireland.”

“There are good reasons to place Ireland immediately under the protection of the European stabilisation fund and the international monetary fund.

“Dublin was disappointed in its hopes that financial markets would be calmed with the announcement of further measures to bring the government finances under control… Market participants have lost faith that Ireland will be able to support and stabilise its banking sector without external help.

“Yet the island has no imminent financing problems. Until the middle of 2011, it has enough reserves to manage without taking out further loans. Yet the clock is ticking. The risk premium on Irish bonds has set new records in recent days.”

3.02pm: Looking at the German press, and Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung has attempted to quantify the extent of the exposure to Irish debt (a rather tricky task….)

Ireland owes German banks $138bn, according to Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung . German banks hold enormous loans – especially Hypo Real Estate, which is owned by the German taxpayer. But an Irish default would hit British banks hardest as they have lent Irish companies and banks $150bn.

2.24pm: Austria is refusing to hand over its share of the EU’s €60bn bailout of Greece because it doesn’t believe Athens has mended its profligate ways.

Greece is due to receive another tranche of bailout money at the end of this month, including €190m from Austria. But Austrian finance minister Josef Proell told reporters in Vienna that the cash has not been released.

This is a new and rather alarming development. As AFP reported:

“Very clear conditions were laid down in return for the EU aid to Greece. But as things currently stand, Greece has not kept to the plan on the taxation side,” Mr Proell told reporters.

The latest data are there. There is no reason, from Austria’s point of view, to release the December tranche,” Mr Proell said.

This could be extremely serious, if other countries – and even more importantly, the IMF – take the same view.

Analysts at Charles Stanley have predicted that the Greek government might have to shut down part or all of its operations and suspend interest and principle payments on its debt. That could send shockwaves around the financial sector, Charles Stanley predicted:

It is impossible to overstate the extent of such a catastrophe for the financial markets. It is hard to predict what might happen to a still fragile global financial system were around €300bn in CDS [credit default swaps] to be triggered on the same day. It seems likely that the ripple would spread swiftly throughout the banking and even non-financial sectors and few parts of the world would emerge unscathed.

Can this disaster be avoided? The most obvious way would be for the IMF simply to indicate that Greece is still on the right track, but that the pre-agreed fiscal targets were too stretching. In such circumstances Greece would likely get a new adjustment programme and adjusted targets and the crisis would be averted…until next February. It is doubtful whether Germany would agree to such a proposal, given that any back sliding on the original terms would likely play out poorly with a German population already deeply uncomfortable about bailing out the region’s periphery.

There’s more over on FT Alphaville .

2.07pm: We’re getting strong signals from Brussels now that a deal is being worked on. My colleague Elena Moya has just been listening to Olli Rehn , the EU economic and monetary affairs commissioner, who is attempting to calm the situation.

Here’s what Rehn (pictured, left) said:

I am quite concerned about the public debate in the eurozone and I want to call on every responsible European to resist alarmism. We need to restore unity and the most pressing problem is in Ireland now. The EU is talking with the IMF and the ECB to find a solution and are working to resolve this very serious problem.

Irish sovereign debt is well funded until next year. The real problem is in the banking sector but you cannot separate the two. Ireland is very different to Spain and Portugal. This is not a matter of survival of the euro – this is a very serious problem for the bank sector in Ireland.

Elsewhere in Brussels, Belgian finance minister Didier Reynders has also been speaking to reporters. He admitted that “there is some concern about the situation” regarding the Irish banking sector.

Reynders said that the priority today was “first of all to listen to our colleagues from Ireland, like from Greece, like from Portugal, to know the exact situation and then we will see if it is necessary to do something”.

1.39pm: Bloomberg is just reporting that Ireland officials are currently locked in talks with EU and IMF officials over a bailout.

Citing a “European official with direct knowledge of the talks”, Bloomberg says they are negotiating a plan that would bolster Ireland’s finances, as well as recapitalising its battered banks.

Via Bloomberg :

The two-part funding package would mean Ireland wouldn’t have to tap the bond market for an extended period as it tries to cut the budget deficit, said the person, who spoke on condition of anonymity. It would also give the government capital to help banks if necessary.

In other developments, ITV’s Daisy McAndrew has tweeted more details from her interview with Dick Roche (see 12.17pm ):

Some confusion over dick roche interview. To be clear, he believes a resolution more likely tomorrow not today.

Also re dick roche, he, not surprisingly, wd favour a banking solution, not sovereign one. Hope that’s clearer!

1.19pm: OK, quiz time. Who wrote in 2006 that – “Ireland stands as a shining example of the art of the possible in long-term economic policymaking, and that is why I am in Dublin: to listen and to learn.”

Give up?

It’s George Osborne , during his early stint as shadow chancellor. He wrote a fascinating piece for The Times, headlined ” Look and learn from across the Irish Sea “, which stated that a good education system, strong focus on R&D and a lower corporation tax was the secret of Ireland’s “dynamic economy”.

Luckily, the whole article isn’t trapped behind The Times’s paywall, so you can read it here .

Hat-tip to Gaby Hinsliff (former Observer political editor) for spotting this piece and sparking a lively debate over on Twitter this morning . As she pointed out, it shows just how tricky it can be to tell when an economy is starting to get out of control.

1.03pm: Looking at the financial markets again, and Irish bond yields edged up as investors nervously awaited the outcome of the EU meeting. The cost of insuring Irish debt against default over five years rose 15 basis points to 515 bps.

And the spread between Irish 10-years bonds and the equivalent German bunds, the benchmark, pushed out to 579bps, 17 bps wider than yesterday.

Trading in Irish debt is still very thin. One trader told Reuters: “We’re waiting for news. The market has whipped itself into a frenzy and I’m not convinced we’re going to get anything substantial.”

“There’ll be a relief trade if there’s a bailout, whatever shape or form that is,” said Charles Diebel, head of market strategy at Lloyds TSB. He reckons the Irish-German spread could tighten by up to 100 bps if a deal is struck, but attention could then shift to Portugal, which has already signalled that it too might need international help.

“It probably goes quiet for a while… then in the New Year we’ll be looking at it again and everyone will be saying ‘Well, what about Portugal?’” Diebel said.

The FTSE 100 index fell 76 points to 5743, a drop of 1.3%, at lunchtime. As our market correspondent Nick Fletcher reported , one of the main reasons for the sharp fall comes from further afield – Asia.

From Nick:

News that Korea had lifted interest rates prompted talk that China may follow suit in an attempt to put a lid on the country’s rising inflation, a move which would put a big dent in demand for commodities. So with copper and other metals under pressure, mining shares are leading the market lower.

12.52pm: More from Henry McDonald in Dublin, who reports that….

An EU financial bailout would have a positive impact on Irish cross-border trade, a leading Northern Ireland economist said today.

John Simpson said the current uncertainty was causing instability on both sides of the Irish border.

“Some firms I have spoken to in Northern Ireland have taken the attitude that their customers and trade from the Republic of Ireland is virtually gone because of all the turmoil.

“Taking up the offer of a bailout would help maintain and strengthen Ireland’s place in the eurozone and would stabilise financial transactions in the Republic, in Northern Ireland and the UK as a whole.”

12.17pm: Daisy McAndrew , ITV News economics editor, just tweeted a very interesting line following a meeting* with Dick Roche , Ireland’s minister of state for Europe:

Just interviewed dick roche, he thinks resolution will be tomorrow in the form of irish bank bail out.

Earlier this morning Roche had admitted that Ireland’s banks had a “problem with liquidity”, but it’s certainly interesting that he’s now suggesting a deal could be hammered out by Wednesday.

The ITV crew have now been hauled back to London to cover the Royal Engagement , so we don’t have any more details on their Roche interview, alas.

* – more of a door-stepping, according to ITV’s Jess Brammar

11.35am: So how is the situation looking in Dublin? Our Ireland correspondent Henry McDonald has a quick run-down:

The former President of the European Parliament Pat Cox has predicted this morning that the Irish government will “play for time” in their meeting with the EU in Brussels today.

Meanwhile the Irish Cabinet meets today in Dublin to ratify Finance Minister Brian Lenihan and Taoiseach Brian Cowen’s position that Ireland does not need a full blown national bailout.

The Cabinet will also discuss a four-year plan designed to fix the economic crisis which is due to be published next week.

11.20am: If you aren’t convinced by the seriousness of the situation, check out a speech delivered by EU president Herman Van Rompuy this morning.

Van Rompuy just told an audience in Brussels that “we’re in a survival crisis”.

We all have to work together in order to survive with the euro zone, because if we don’t survive with the euro zone we will not survive with the European Union. But I’m very confident we will overcome this.”

10.48am: Ahead of the Brussels showdown, European leaders continue to pile the pressure on Ireland.

Spain’s treasury secretary, Carlos Ocana , told reporters in Madrid this morning that the uncertainty cannot go on much longer:

The important thing is that Ireland makes a decision as soon as possible.”

Of course, as Dick Roche reiterated this morning (10.05am), Ireland has already taken its decision – austerity cutbacks, and no bailout.

European Central Bank vice president Vitor Constancio has also been talking this morning, just before he headed off to Brussels. Constancio argued that Spain and Portugal might still be secure, even if Ireland does buckle. Quotes via Reuters:

There is no necessary link in this respect. All situations are different from each other…it depends of course on market developments, which cannot be predicted,” he said.

“Several countries have been under some pressure from the markets, that is well known. But as you have seen, there are differences. The market really discriminates (between) the different situations that exist.”

10.29am: Looking ahead briefly, the real action should kick off this evening in Brussels when the eurozone finance ministers gather. It’s a regular meeting to discusss economic affairs, but the Irish crisis is going to dominate.

Politicians are already arriving in Brussels, and could be speaking to (will be dodging?) the media throughout the day.

And at 2.30pm Juergen Stark, the European Central Bank’s chief economist, is due to give a speech on Economic and Financial Stability. Promises to be interesting.

10.23am: Spain has also been selling government debt this morning, and like Greece (see 10.17am ) it had to offer a more generous interest rate.

It just sold €3.73bn of 12-month debt, at an average yield of 2.363% – up from a yield of 1.842% at the last auction. And as with the Greek sale, there was less interest from traders – with the bid-cover ratio down at 1.9, from 2.06 last time.

10.17am: We’re just getting the details of the latest auctions of European debt, and there are clear signs that the crisis is causing investors some concern:

Greece just sold €390m of 13-week Treasury bills (ie, debt that is repaid in three months time). Although it found buyers for the debt, it had to accept to pay a higher interest rate – a yield of 4.1%, up from 3.75% for a similar sale in October.

The bid-cover ratio (which measures how over-subscribed the auction was), fell to 4.98, versus 5.19 last month.

So, eurozone sovereign debt is still in demand, but it is looking riskier than a few weeks ago.

10.11am: The financial markets, though, are in a nervy mood. The FTSE 100 index fell around 1% this morning, and is currently trading 57 points lower at 5762 [more details here on Market Forces Live ]

Irish government debt remains at crisis levels too — with the yield on the 10-year bond rising to 8.2% this morning (but still below the 9% it hit last week).

We’ll shortly have a full round-up of how Eurozone debt is trading – which should indicate if the contagion is spreading…..

10.05am: The key early development so far today is that the Irish government continues to insist that it does not need a bailout.

Ireland’s minister for European affairs, Dick Roche , hit the radio waves this morning, telling the Today programme that the situation is under control, and there’s no need to panic :

“There is a problem with liquidity in banks, there is no doubt about that, but I don’t think that the appropriate response to that would be for European finance ministers to panic.

“Ireland doesn’t need to trigger any mechanisms because of sovereign debt and the problems in banks are being dealt with.”

10.00am: Good morning. Is it crunch time for Ireland? Dublin is facing huge pressure from the financial markets and fellow members of the eurozone to ask for a bailout. With eurozone finance ministers gathering in Brussels today, there’s little chance of this crisis going away.

We’ll be bringing you the latest developments here throughout the day, from our reporters in Dublin, Brussels and the City. Ireland bailout European debt crisis Financial crisis Ireland Euro European Central Bank Economics European monetary union Graeme Wearden Julia Kollewe guardian.co.uk © Guardian News & Media Limited 2010 | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds

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